VIDEO Član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta: 'Da smo zakasnili, bilo bi više tisuća mrtvih!'

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‘U jednom optimističnom scenariju, da, možemo reći da smo prvi val jako dobro pobijedili’, kaže Ozren Polašek

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</span><script async="async" src="https://ad.vidverto.io/vidverto/js/aries/v1/invocation.js" fetchpriority="high"></script> <div id="_vidverto-b83db36f345462e68ef3eada64768e55"></div> <script> (function() { function loadVidverto() { window.aries = window.aries || {}; window.aries.v1 = window.aries.v1 || { commands: [] }; const aries = window.aries.v1; aries.commands.push(() => { const zoneId = '8222'; const anchor = document.getElementById('_vidverto-b83db36f345462e68ef3eada64768e55'); anchor.removeAttribute('id'); aries.mount(zoneId, anchor, { width: 720, height: 405, }); }); } if (document.readyState === "complete") { loadVidverto(); } else { window.onload = loadVidverto; } })(); </script> <p>Kako se mjere ublažavaju – tako se sve češće postavlja pitanje jesu li trebale biti tako rigorozne? I što su bile političke, a što epidemiološke mjere? <p>Brojke zaraženih u Hrvatskoj u kontekst je stavio član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta za borbu protiv pandemije koji tvrdi – mogao nam se dogoditi crni scenarij.</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v2"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <p>Ulice hrvatskih gradova, nakon što je 19. ožujka stupila na snagu zabrana javnih okupljanja, bile su prazne. No, većini nezamisliva karantena, pokazala se učinkovitom.<br /> Jer da je uvedena samo tjedan dana kasnije, broj oboljelih i mrtvih bio bi dvostruko veći. Do ovog je izračuna došao splitski profesor za javno zdravstvo i član Vladinog znanstvenog savjeta za borbu protiv pandemije. <p>”Najgori scenarij je bio kada smo stavili uvođenje karantene da se dogodilo tjedan dana kasnije i takve mjere da su bile puno blaže. U tom slučaju se čak broj zaraženih diže do nekih 70.000, a broj umrlih na nekakve 2500”, kaže <strong>Ozren Polašek</strong> s Medicinskog fakulteta Sveučiliša u Splitu.</p> <p>Karantena nas je, smatra on, spasila. Da je bila opravdana i da je dovela do pobjede nad koronavirusom, objasnio je takozvanom SEIR metodom koja opisuje kretanje epidemijskog vala.</p> <p><strong>“Vjerojatno ćemo puno mudrije reagirati u novom valu”</strong></p><div id="midasWidget__10643"></div><script async src="https://cdn2.midas-network.com/Scripts/midasWidget-11-673-10643.js"></script> <p>”U jednom optimističnom scenariju, da, možemo reći da smo prvi val jako dobro pobijedili. Vjerojatno ćemo puno mudrije reagirati u novom valu”, jasno će Polašek.</p> <p>I sam premijer jučer je rekao da je Hrvatska pobijedila koronvirus. S njime se složila i ravnateljica infektivne klinike koja se prvotno od pobjede ogradila.</p> <p>”Kad je cijeli svijet pobijedi, onda ćemo reći da smo je pobijedili. Hrvatska je izvrstan rezultat napravila protiv korone, držimo se izvrsno i nadamo se da ćemo svi zajedno tako nastaviti.”</p> <p><strong>Predsjednik Vlade je danas rekao da smo koronu ipak pobijedili?</strong></p> <p><em>“</em>Vidite, u tom kontekstu možemo reći. U ovoj trenutnoj situaciji, da, jesmo pobijedili. Nula pozitivnih se može reći kao pobjeda”, kazala je ravnateljica Klinike za infektivne bolesti “Dr. Fran Mihaljević” <strong>Alemka Markotić</strong>.</p> <p>O virusu se puno toga saznalo pa se Polašek nada kako će mjere u drugom valu, ako do njega dođe, biti blaže nego sada.</p> <p>”U prvom valu nismo još znali koliko je virus opasan. Pa smo morali sve aktivnosti zaustaviti. Sada već znamo da neke aktivnosti ne moramo zaustaviti tako da u slučaju jesenskog vala karantena će možda malo biti opuštenija na način da će gospodarstvo, barem one kritične grane morati funkcionirati”, ističe Polašek.</p> <p>Crni scenarij nije se dogodio. Svi vjeruju da se slike koje smo gledali prošlih mjeseci više neće ponoviti.</p> <p>Vijesti.hr</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v3"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699951870-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699951870-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <div class="post-tags"><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/mjere/">mjere</a></div><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/orzen-polasek/">Orzen Polašek</a></div></div> <div class="share-meta-container"><div class="article-meta"> <div class="editor"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 640 512" viewBox="0 0 640 512"><path d="M224 256c70.7 0 128-57.3 128-128S294.7 0 224 0 96 57.3 96 128s57.3 128 128 128zm-45.7 48C79.8 304 0 383.8 0 482.3 0 498.7 13.3 512 29.7 512h293.1c-3.1-8.8-3.7-18.4-1.4-27.8l15-60.1c2.8-11.3 8.6-21.5 16.8-29.7l40.3-40.3c-32.1-31-75.7-50.1-123.9-50.1h-91.3zm435.5-68.3c-15.6-15.6-40.9-15.6-56.6 0l-29.4 29.4 71 71 29.4-29.4c15.6-15.6 15.6-40.9 0-56.6l-14.4-14.4zM375.9 417c-4.1 4.1-7 9.2-8.4 14.9l-15 60.1c-1.4 5.5.2 11.2 4.2 15.2s9.7 5.6 15.2 4.2l60.1-15c5.6-1.4 10.8-4.3 14.9-8.4l129.2-129.3-71-71L375.9 417z" class="meta-icon"/></svg></span><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/autor/riportal-hr/" title="Objave od: Riportal.hr" rel="author">Riportal.hr</a></div> <div class="column-date"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 448 512" viewBox="0 0 448 512"><path d="M96 32v32H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v48h448v-48c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48h-48V32c0-17.7-14.3-32-32-32s-32 14.3-32 32v32H160V32c0-17.7-14.3-32-32-32S96 14.3 96 32zm352 160H0v272c0 26.5 21.5 48 48 48h352c26.5 0 48-21.5 48-48V192z" class="meta-icon"/></svg></span>28.05.2020.</div> <div class="column-time"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 512 512" viewBox="0 0 512 512"><path d="M256 512C114.6 512 0 397.4 0 256S114.6 0 256 0s256 114.6 256 256-114.6 256-256 256zm-24-392v136c0 8 4 15.5 10.7 20l96 64c11 7.4 25.9 4.4 33.3-6.7s4.4-25.9-6.7-33.3L280 243.2V120c0-13.3-10.7-24-24-24s-24 10.7-24 24z" class="meta-icon"/></svg></span>15:52</div> </div> <div class="share-buttons"> <div class="facebook"><a onclick="window.open('https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/video-clan-vladina-znanstvenog-savjeta-da-smo-zakasnili-bilo-bi-vise-tisuca-mrtvih/172092/','Facebook','width=600,height=300,left='+(screen.availWidth/2-300)+',top='+(screen.availHeight/2-150)+''); return false;" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/video-clan-vladina-znanstvenog-savjeta-da-smo-zakasnili-bilo-bi-vise-tisuca-mrtvih/172092/" title="Podijeli na Facebooku"></a></div> <div class="twitter"><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Trenutno čitam VIDEO Član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta: ‘Da smo zakasnili, bilo bi više tisuća mrtvih!’&url=https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/video-clan-vladina-znanstvenog-savjeta-da-smo-zakasnili-bilo-bi-vise-tisuca-mrtvih/172092/" title="Podijeli na X"></a></div> <div class="viber"><a href="viber://forward?text='VIDEO Član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta: ‘Da smo zakasnili, bilo bi više tisuća mrtvih!’' - 'https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/video-clan-vladina-znanstvenog-savjeta-da-smo-zakasnili-bilo-bi-vise-tisuca-mrtvih/172092/'" title="Podijeli na Viberu"></a></div> <div class="whatsapp"><a href="whatsapp://send?text='VIDEO Član Vladina znanstvenog savjeta: ‘Da smo zakasnili, bilo bi više tisuća mrtvih!’' - 'https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/video-clan-vladina-znanstvenog-savjeta-da-smo-zakasnili-bilo-bi-vise-tisuca-mrtvih/172092/'" data-action="share/whatsapp/share" title="Podijeli na Whatsapp"></a></div> <div class="toemail"><a href="mailto:?subject=Pogledaj ovo! 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