Utrka za Pantovčak: U dramatičnom finišu mrtva trka, Škoro poremetio planove Grabar-Kitarović

Ekskluzivno istraživanje Promocije plus za RTL donosi preferencije kandidata za predsjedničke izbore!

U napetoj predizbornoj atmosferi, u mjesecu održavanja predsjedničkih izbora donosimo vam ekskluzivno istraživanje RTL-a u suradnji s Promocijom plus. Rezultate donosi i analizira Damira Gregoret.

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</span> <p>Sve smo bliže još jednom izboru za predsjednika Republike, a u posljednjem ovogodišnjem istraživanju političkih preferencija kandidata za Pantovčak situacija je sve napetija. Očito je da će upravo drugi krug iznjedriti pobjednika. U samom finalu, 12 dana prije izbora, troje kandidata vode iznimno napetu, gotovo pa mrtvu trku!</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v2"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <p><strong>Mrtva utrka na vrhu</strong> <p>Kolindu Grabar-Kitarović bira 26,8 posto ispitanika (28,6 posto u studenom). Zorana Milanovića 25,4 posto (24,3 posto u studenom), a Miroslava Škoru 21 posto (16,7 posto u studenom).</p> <p>Mislav Kolakušić udaljio se od vodećeg trojca, ali nezanemarivih 10,6 posto ispitanika njega želi za predsjednika (u odnosu na 14 posto u studenom).</p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139299" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori1-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori1-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori1-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori1-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p> <p>Aktualna predsjednica od rujna, uzastopna četiri mjeseca, bilježi pad potpore. U odnosu na studeni, pala je za gotovo 2 postotna boda. Milanović je od rujna na sličnoj razini, s tim da mu je od studenog potpora porasla nešto iznad postotnog boda. Najveći rast, više od 4 postotna boda u odnosu na studeni, bilježi Miroslav Škoro koji se time ozbiljno približio vodećem dvojcu! Istodobno, Kolakušić gubi 3,5 postotna boda.</p> <p><strong>HDZ-ovi birači češće biraju Grabar Kitarović</strong></p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139298" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori2-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori2-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori2-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori2-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p> <p>S obzirom na otvoreni rat na desnici, prema istraživanju, HDZ-ovi birači, točnije njih 77,3 posto podržat će službenu kandidatkinju Kolindu Grabar Kitarović, no 14,1 posto kaže da bi izabralo bivšeg člana HDZ-a Miroslava Škoru, koji im je ovoga vikenda na skupu i rekao da će biti njihov predsjednik. Mislava Kolakušića bira 2,3 posto. A u redovima HDZ-a ima i onih kojima je Zoran Milanović prvi izbor. Zanimljivo je da nešto manje SDP-ovaca bira Milanovića, nego HDZ-ovaca Grabar-Kitarović.</p> <p><strong>Ostali ispod 3 posto</strong></p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139297" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori3-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori3-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori3-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori3-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p> <p>Kad se vratimo na poredak, nakon vodećeg kvarteta, peta je Dalija Orešković s 2,6 posto (2,5 posto u studenom). I ona i Ivan Pernar bilježe rast. Bivši član Živog zida sada je na 1,9 posto (1,3 posto u studenom). Dejan Kovač pada, bira ga 1,5 posto ispitanika (2,6 posto u studenom). Dario Juričan, odnosno Milan Bandić, bilježi rast, ali je i dalje ispod 1 posto (0,9 posto, a u studenom 0,5 posto).</p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139296" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori4-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori4-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori4-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori4-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p><div id="midasWidget__10643"></div><script async src="https://cdn2.midas-network.com/Scripts/midasWidget-11-673-10643.js"></script> <p>Baš kao i Katarina Peović koja je na 0,9 posto (0,3 posto u studenom). Anto Đapić je ispod toga, na 0,4 posto. Nedjeljko Babić na 0,3 posto.</p> <p>Neodlučnih birača je 7,9 posto što je, s obzirom na iznimno tijesan poredak u vrhu, jako puno, no i oni mogu odlučiti tko će u drugi krug koji je još neizvjesniji! Škoro, koji je treći izbor u prvom krugu, u drugom pobjeđuje i Grabar-Kitarović i Milanovića.</p> <p><strong>Drugi krug neizbježan</strong></p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139295" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori5-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori5-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori5-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori5-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p> <p>Ali do drugog kruga treba doći, a prema istraživanju ondje će se sučeliti aktualna predsjednica i bivši premijer. I tu vidimo pravi politički triler. Grabar-Kitarović u tom slučaju bira 48,3 posto ispitanika (51,8 posto u studenom). Zorana Milanovića 47,6 posto (u studenom 44,5 posto). Neodlučnih je 4,1 posto i to su oni koji bi odlučili o novom predsjedniku ili predsjednici.</p> <p>U proteklih pola godine predsjednica u ovakvom srazu kontinuirano pada. U odnosu na studeni, tri i pol postotna boda, dok je Milanoviću potpora narasla 3 postotna boda. Prije mjesec dana predsjednica je bila u prednosti više od 7 postotnih bodova, a sada se ta prednost istopila na svega 0,7 posto.</p> <p><strong>Grabar Kitarović još više pada u srazu sa Škorom</strong></p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139294" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori6-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori6-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori6-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori6-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p> <p>Još veći pad Grabar-Kitarović bilježi u srazu s Miroslavom Škorom. Da oni uđu u drugi krug, Škoru bi odabralo 50 posto ispitanika (45,6 posto u studenom), aktualnu predsjednicu 45,2 posto (49,2 posto u studenom). Škoro ovdje u odnosu na studeni bilježi rast od gotovo 4,5 postotna poena, a predsjednica pad od čak 4 postotna poena. Smanjio se i broj neodlučnih, ali i dalje ih je 4,8 posto.</p> <p>Gotovo 80 posto HDZ-ovaca u ovakvom srazu bira predsjednicu, a nešto više od 18 posto Miroslava Škoru. No više od 60 posto SDP-ovaca prednost daje Škori, gotovo upola manje je za predsjednicu.</p> <p><strong>Sraz Škore i Milanovića</strong></p> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-139293" src="http://rijecanin.rtl.hr/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori7-2019.png" alt="" width="860" height="460" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori7-2019.png 860w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori7-2019-300x160.png 300w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/izbori7-2019-310x165.png 310w" sizes="(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px" /></a></p> <p>I za kraj sraz Škore i Milanovića. Ovdje je Škorina pobjeda uvjerljivija. Bira ga 52,9 posto ispitanika (prema 49,6 posto u studenom). Milanovića 43,5 posto (u studenom 46,3 posto).</p> <p>Neodlučni, kojih je ovdje 3,6 posto, ne mogu promijeniti pobjednika. I ovdje Škori potpora, u odnosu na studeni – nešto iznad 3 postotna boda, a Milanoviću pada za oko 3 postotna boda. Gotovo 90 posto HDZ-ovaca je ovdje, očekivano, uz Miroslava Škoru, a birači Mislava Kolakušića su se podijelili.</p> <p>U sam finiš, u tjednu uoči predsjedničkih izbora, kandidati na vrhu ulaze s razlikom koja je gotovo na razini statističke pogreške, tako da je jedino jasno da ćemo do pobjednika doći u drugom krugu, no potpuno je neizvjesno tko će se ondje naći. A onda, ovisno o tome tko do njega dođe, počinje potpuno nova bitka.</p> <p>Napomena: Istraživanje je provela agencija PROMOCIJA PLUS od 5. do 9. prosinca 2019. CATI metodom (telefonski) na uzorku od 1300 punoljetna građana Republike Hrvatske.</p> <p>Standardna pogreška uzorka iznosi +/- 2,77 posto, uz razinu pouzdanosti od 95%<br /> Damira Gregoret</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v3"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699951870-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699951870-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <div class="post-tags"><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/istrazivanje/">istraživanje</a></div><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/izbori/">izbori</a></div><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/kandidati/">kandidati</a></div></div> <div class="share-meta-container"><div class="article-meta"> <div class="editor"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 640 512" viewBox="0 0 640 512"><path d="M224 256c70.7 0 128-57.3 128-128S294.7 0 224 0 96 57.3 96 128s57.3 128 128 128zm-45.7 48C79.8 304 0 383.8 0 482.3 0 498.7 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