Do kada ćemo živjeti ovako? Znanstvenici: Socijalno distanciranje sve do 2022. godine?!

Novo istraživanje pokazuje da se virus može vratiti čak i za pet godina

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</span><script async="async" src="https://ad.vidverto.io/vidverto/js/aries/v1/invocation.js" fetchpriority="high"></script> <div id="_vidverto-b83db36f345462e68ef3eada64768e55"></div> <script> (() => { window.aries = window.aries || {}; window.aries.v1 = window.aries.v1 || { commands: [] }; const aries = window.aries.v1; aries.commands.push(() => { const zoneId = '8222'; const anchor = document.getElementById('_vidverto-b83db36f345462e68ef3eada64768e55'); anchor.removeAttribute('id'); aries.mount(zoneId, anchor, { width: 720, height: 405, }); }); })(); </script> <p>Prema matematičkom modelu objavljenom u uglednom časopisu Science, periodične mjere socijalnog distanciranja bit će potrebne sve do 2022. kako bi se spriječila nove epidemije koronavirusa. <p>Znanstvenici su upozorili kako bi ukidanje svih mjera odjednom izazvale drastičan rast broja oboljeli te kako bi drugi broj rasta oboljelih bio još veći od primarnog usred epidemije.</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v2"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <p>Ističu kako će na širenje koronovarusa utjecati niz faktora, a dva ključna su hoće li se pojavljivati sezonski te hoće li vremenom mutirati toliko da se neće moći tako lako stvoriti kolekitvni imunitet. <p><strong>Čim se ukinu mjere, virus se vraća</strong></p> <p>U najboljem slučaju, virus koji izaziva Covid-19 ponašat će se poput najbližeg rođaka. SARS-CoV-1 i nestat će nakon jedne pandemije. No to je malo vjerojatno, ističu stručnjaci te su izračunali različite modele kojima su promatrali širenje koronavirusa nakon prvog vala epidemije tijekom idućih pet godina.</p> <p>Upozoravaju kako je za sada još mnogo nepoznanica, prvenstveno kako točno promjena godišnjih doba utječe na širenje virusa te koliko dugo osoba ostaje imuna na virus nakon što se jednom zarazi, no prema svim modelima, jednom kada se ukinu epidemiološke mjere slijedi novi val zaraze.</p><div id="midasWidget__10643"></div><script async src="https://cdn2.midas-network.com/Scripts/midasWidget-11-673-10643.js"></script> <p><img decoding="async" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-163352" src="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/27190514-8218883-image-a-80_1586894488603.jpg" alt="" width="634" height="1099" srcset="https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/27190514-8218883-image-a-80_1586894488603.jpg 634w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/27190514-8218883-image-a-80_1586894488603-173x300.jpg 173w, https://d3khoh4ekfpdcq.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/27190514-8218883-image-a-80_1586894488603-591x1024.jpg 591w" sizes="(max-width: 634px) 100vw, 634px" /></a></p> <p>Njihovi rezultati su u izravnoj suprotnosti onima kojima mašu u Bijeloj kući koja tvrdi kako će pandemija nestati ovo ljeto.</p> <p><strong>‘Poticaj za razmatranje drugih metoda kontrole’</strong></p> <p>Prema rezultatima modela, objavljenima u Scienceu, ako se mjere ukinu prije jeseni, na početku sezone bolesti slijedi novo širenje virusa i u siječnju dolazi do nove eksplozije broja oboljelih, u trenutku kada je u punom jeku i sezona gripe, što dodatno opterećuje zdravstveni sustav.</p> <p>„Periodične mjere socijalnog distanciranja bit će potrebne do 2022. osim ako se drastično ne poveća kapacitet intezivne njege, ako se ne otkrije cjepivo ili učinkovita terapija. Čak i u slučaju prividnog nestajanja, SARS –CoV-2 se mora neprestano motriti jer je novo širenje moguće do 2024.“, ističu u radu.</p> <p>„Ako se odabere pristup kontrole epidemije periodičnim smanjenjem kontakta, to će se morati provoditi više godina, što je, očito, prilično dugo vrijeme“, ističe jedan od autora istraživanja dr. Marc Lipsitch, profesor epidemiologije s Harvarda.</p> <p>Ističu kako su svjesni ekonomske, psihološke i društvene štete koje donose mjere socijalnog distanciranja, čak i ako se periodično primjenjuju, no nadaju se kako će njihovo istraživanje ukazati na alternativne pristupe i komplementarne načine borbe protiv pandemije.</p> <p>Net.hr</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v3"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699951870-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699951870-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <div class="post-tags"><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/distanciranje/">distanciranje</a></div><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/koronavirus/">Koronavirus</a></div><div><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/tag/mjere-opreza/">mjere opreza</a></div></div> <div class="share-meta-container"><div class="article-meta"> <div class="editor"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 640 512" viewBox="0 0 640 512"><path d="M224 256c70.7 0 128-57.3 128-128S294.7 0 224 0 96 57.3 96 128s57.3 128 128 128zm-45.7 48C79.8 304 0 383.8 0 482.3 0 498.7 13.3 512 29.7 512h293.1c-3.1-8.8-3.7-18.4-1.4-27.8l15-60.1c2.8-11.3 8.6-21.5 16.8-29.7l40.3-40.3c-32.1-31-75.7-50.1-123.9-50.1h-91.3zm435.5-68.3c-15.6-15.6-40.9-15.6-56.6 0l-29.4 29.4 71 71 29.4-29.4c15.6-15.6 15.6-40.9 0-56.6l-14.4-14.4zM375.9 417c-4.1 4.1-7 9.2-8.4 14.9l-15 60.1c-1.4 5.5.2 11.2 4.2 15.2s9.7 5.6 15.2 4.2l60.1-15c5.6-1.4 10.8-4.3 14.9-8.4l129.2-129.3-71-71L375.9 417z" class="meta-icon"/></svg></span><a href="https://riportal.net.hr/autor/riportal-hr/" title="Objave od: Riportal.hr" rel="author">Riportal.hr</a></div> <div class="column-date"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 448 512" viewBox="0 0 448 512"><path d="M96 32v32H48C21.5 64 0 85.5 0 112v48h448v-48c0-26.5-21.5-48-48-48h-48V32c0-17.7-14.3-32-32-32s-32 14.3-32 32v32H160V32c0-17.7-14.3-32-32-32S96 14.3 96 32zm352 160H0v272c0 26.5 21.5 48 48 48h352c26.5 0 48-21.5 48-48V192z" class="meta-icon"/></svg></span>15.04.2020.</div> <div class="column-time"><span><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" xml:space="preserve" style="enable-background:new 0 0 512 512" viewBox="0 0 512 512"><path d="M256 512C114.6 512 0 397.4 0 256S114.6 0 256 0s256 114.6 256 256-114.6 256-256 256zm-24-392v136c0 8 4 15.5 10.7 20l96 64c11 7.4 25.9 4.4 33.3-6.7s4.4-25.9-6.7-33.3L280 243.2V120c0-13.3-10.7-24-24-24s-24 10.7-24 24z" class="meta-icon"/></svg></span>12:05</div> </div> <div class="share-buttons"> <div class="facebook"><a onclick="window.open('https://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/koronavirus/do-kada-cemo-zivjeti-ovako-znanstvenici-socijalno-distanciranje-sve-do-2022-godine/163350/','Facebook','width=600,height=300,left='+(screen.availWidth/2-300)+',top='+(screen.availHeight/2-150)+''); return false;" href="http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https://riportal.net.hr/vijesti/koronavirus/do-kada-cemo-zivjeti-ovako-znanstvenici-socijalno-distanciranje-sve-do-2022-godine/163350/" title="Podijeli na Facebooku"></a></div> <div class="twitter"><a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Trenutno čitam Do kada ćemo živjeti ovako? 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