Što će se dogoditi s gospodarstvom zbog epidemije? 'Dođe li do pandemije, sve pada...'

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Već su pogođeni dentalni i kongresni turizam, teretni prijevoz, poljoprivreda…

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</span><script async="async" src="https://ad.vidverto.io/vidverto/js/aries/v1/invocation.js" fetchpriority="high"></script> <div id="_vidverto-b83db36f345462e68ef3eada64768e55"></div> <script> (() => { window.aries = window.aries || {}; window.aries.v1 = window.aries.v1 || { commands: [] }; const aries = window.aries.v1; aries.commands.push(() => { const zoneId = '8222'; const anchor = document.getElementById('_vidverto-b83db36f345462e68ef3eada64768e55'); anchor.removeAttribute('id'); aries.mount(zoneId, anchor, { width: 720, height: 405, }); }); })(); </script> <p>Sve je pod kontrolom, ne treba paničariti. To su bile riječi koje su mnogi naši sugovornici gospodarstvenici govorili prije dva dana. Međutim, u samo 48 sati priča se preokrenula. Sad gospodarstvenici govore samo o tome kako izbjeći katastrofu koju će prouzročiti koronavirus, kako spasiti poslovanje i izbjeći otkaze. <p>Svijet se jutros probudio uz ovakve naslovnice: “Svijet u vrućici” i “Krah burze” u poslovnim novinama. Britance je dočekala izjava njihova premijera: “Mnoge će obitelj izgubiti nekoga voljenog”. Francuski dnevnici: “Potpuna mobilizacija”. Španjolci pišu o pandemiji, Portugalci također. Sportske novine – o sudbini Europskog prvenstva.</p> <div class="responsive-ad-container-v2"> <div id="div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0" class="div-gpt"> <script> googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1645699903930-0'); }); </script> </div> </div> <p>“Budite mirni i nastavite trošiti” savjet je za Australce. U Belgiji slični prizori poput hrvatskih: kolica puna artikala. <p><strong>“Nema tjestenine, jedeš krumpir…”</strong></p> <blockquote><p>“Nema tjestenine, jedeš krumpir, nema krumpira, jedeš grah. Ljudi u krizi hoće lokalno… Ako ne dolazi talijanska tjestenina, počet će kupovati međimursku pa će vidjeti da su neke stvari bolje, da je roba kvalitetnija”, rekao nam je poslovni konzultant<strong> Darko Munjiza</strong>.</p></blockquote> <p>Munjiza, poslovni konzultant i čovjek koji je vodio veliki trgovački lanac, umjereni je optimist.</p> <blockquote><p>“Svaka situacija se da prebroditi i mi smo ih znali prebroditi unatrag 30 godina barem dva, tri puta smo ih prebrođivali s manjkom robe ili uz otežane kanale distrubucije”, poručio nam je Darko Munjiza.</p></blockquote> <p>Ipak, potraje li kriza, može doći do poskupljenja. “Do povećanja bi moglo doći kad sirovine koje imaju budu iscrpljene, ali naši poduzetnici koji su proživjeli rat i krizu 2008. su se naviknuli na to. Za razliku od Talijana nikad nismo imali ozbiljnije teškoće u dobavi robe”, kaže Darko Munjiza.</p> <blockquote><p>“Kad dođeš prvi put, čovjek će ti prodati 20 posto skuplje, ali bit će neodgovornih ljudi, a nekad intervenira i država”, objasnio je Darko Munjiza.</p></blockquote> <p><strong>Problemi dentalnih klinika</strong></p> <p>Intervenciju države ovih su danas tražili mnogi. I veliki i mali; oni koji su odmah pogođeni krizom i oni koji će negativne učinke tek osjetiti. I prije nego što je koronavirus ušao u Hrvatsku, njihovo poslovanje našlo se na udaru. Dentalni turizam u najvećoj se mjeri oslanjao na talijanske pacijente.</p> <blockquote><p>“U tim klinikama, to su jako velike klinike u kojima radi negdje i više od sto djelatnika, preko noći se prestaje s poslovanjem”, rekao nam je ravnatelj Stomatološke poliklinike <strong>Srećko Srdjak</strong>.</p></blockquote> <p>Neke imaju, prema prvim procjenama, gubitke od 30 do čak 90 posto.</p> <blockquote><p>“Prve procjene su bile – pričekat će se do 1. travnja, pričekat ćemo 1. svibnja, ali nitko ne zna koliko će to sve skupa trajati. Koliko god bude trajalo, najveći problem nas tek čeka, a to je kako ponovno otvoriti radna mjesta za one koji će ostati bez posla. I tu apeliram na Vladu da napravi svoj maksimum”, poručuje Srećko Srdjak.</p></blockquote> <p>Zagrebačka klinika koju vodi, kaže, nije toliko izložena. Ali i oni osjećaju prve posljedice.</p> <blockquote><p>“Mi moramo napraviti novi set up poslovanja, za kolege koji su zaduženi za pacijente iz Italije, koji su ih dovodili i koji su se brinuli o njihovoj terapiji.”, kaže Srećko Srdjak.</p></blockquote> <p>U tom potpuno privatiziranom zdravstvenom sektoru, prihodi zubara koji liječe strance rasle su u nebo pogotovo otkako je Hrvatska ušla u Europsku uniju. Deset najvećih stomatoloških poliklinika 2016. imalo je ukupno 330 milijuna kuna prometa. Tri godine kasnije 2019., samo pet ih je imalo tolike prihode.</p> <blockquote><p>“Bitno je napomenuti da one zapošljavaju 30, 50, do 140 zaposlenika i to su sigurno veliki udarci. Nitko se ne može pripremiti, nitko se ne priprema na tu situaciju ako poslovanje prestane”, objašnjava Srećko Srdjak.</p></blockquote> <p><strong>Štetu već osjećaju i prijevoznici</strong></p> <p>Štetu već osjećaju i prijevoznici.</p> <blockquote><p>“Nema dovoljno vozača ni ovako, ni onako, taj kamion ne može voziti. U Italiji je alarmantna situacija, tu također bit će problema”, poručio nam je predsjednik Udruženja cestovnog teretnog prometa <strong>Darko Vukadinović</strong>.</p></blockquote> <p>Nitko iz njihova ceha nije, kaže, sudjelovao u odluci o mjerama samoizolacije vozača.</p> <blockquote><p>“Sama mjera… provedba je takva neke vozače nisu slali, a sada sve vozače šalju u samoizolaciju, sljedećih 14 dana ne mogu raditi”, rekao je Darko Vukadinović.</p></blockquote> <p>Po gruboj procjeni, u Hrvatskoj oko 100.000 vozača radi u cestovnom teretnom prijevozu. Ako se zatvore granice prema Italiji, o čemu se nagađa, to bi značilo i zatvaranje mnogih radnih mjesta u prijevozu.</p> <blockquote><p>“To će se odraziti snažno na izvoznike, špeditere, i na koncu će to vidjeti potrošači kada proizvoda ne bude na policima”, objasnio je Darko Vukadinović.</p></blockquote> <p><strong>Proizvođači junetine</strong></p><div id="midasWidget__10643"></div><script async src="https://cdn2.midas-network.com/Scripts/midasWidget-11-673-10643.js"></script> <p>Nitko nema rezervni plan za stanje u kojem je nakon 25 godina uvoz potpuno stao. Logistički problemi muče i proizvođače baby beef junetine.</p> <blockquote><p>“Situacija koja se odvija zadnjih nekoliko tjedana u Italiji i panika koja je nastala zbog epidemije koronavirusa zatvorila nam je i to tržište prošlotjednim otkazivanjem svih narudžbi milanskih rezova i izvoza žive junadi u talijanske klaonice”, rekao nam je <strong>Darko Celovec</strong> iz udruge Baby Beef.</p></blockquote> <p>Kažu da su bespomoćni.</p> <blockquote><p>“Izgubit ćemo pola milijarde kuna prihoda na godišnjoj razini. Kompletan je izvoz nakon 25 godina jednostavno stao, što nas stavlja u bespomoćan položaj, a tovu junadi kao znatnoj izvoznoj grani hrvatske poljoprivrede prijeti gašenje”, kaže Darko.</p></blockquote> <p><strong>“Nismo osjetili probleme u širokoj potrošnji”</strong></p> <blockquote><p>“Ako dođe do pandemije, onda vam sve pada, onda nema rasta, osim straha…”, objašnjava poduzetnik <strong>Branko Roglić</strong>.</p></blockquote> <p>Roglić je vlasnik Orbica, vodećeg distributera robe široke potrošnje koji posluje u 20 zemalja, zapošljava više od 6000 radnika, i on nije pesimističan.</p> <blockquote><p>“A mislim da će ministra financija boljeti glava, zato moramo biti oprezni i ne trošiti puno u ministarstvima da nam se ne ponovi nesreća”, rekao je Branko Roglić.</p></blockquote> <p>U skladištu njegove tvrtke u Ivanić-Gradu kamioni se pune i prazne uobičajenim tempom.</p> <blockquote><p>“Pošteno govoreći, nismo osjetili probleme u širokoj potrošnji. U turizmu smo osjetili, što me strah da će biti šteta, ne samo za mene”, kaže Branko Roglić.</p></blockquote> <p>Procjenjuje da neće osjetiti veću štetu.</p> <blockquote><p>“To me strah, i zato kažem, veće štete ne bi trebalo biti, ministra financija njega će glava boljeti, da se štedi na svim razinama, da se izbjegne nesreća veća…”, smatra Branko Roglić.</p></blockquote> <p>U priči o koronavirusu previše je nepoznanica.</p> <blockquote><p>“Privremeno će rasti potrošnja da ljudi kupuju rezerve, to će dovesti do potrošnje, blagi rast prvih nekoliko dana, ne znamo što će biti dalje …”, poručio nam je Branko Roglić.</p></blockquote> <p><strong>Strateške robne zalihe dostatne za opskrbu 30 dana</strong></p> <p>Ministarstvo gospodarstva zbog interesa javnosti objavilo je kako je ukupna vrijednost strateških robnih zaliha u Hrvatskoj oko 537 milijuna kuna. Utvrdili su da je dostatna za opskrbu cjelokupnog stanovništva za 30 dana.</p> <blockquote><p>“Ako bi se u Hrvatskoj dogodio slučaj proglašenja karantene, aktivirao bi se sav potreban asortiman robnih zaliha”, kažu u Ministarstvu.</p></blockquote> <blockquote><p>“Mislim da svatko mudar pa i država mora imati scenarije A,B,C i D. U najlošijem scenariju roba će poskupjeti i neće je biti jer će ovo trajati šest, sedam mjeseci”, kaže Darko Munjiza.</p></blockquote> <p>Prizore rukovanja i antiseptika smo snimili u zagrebačkom hotelu Westin početkom tjedna. Tada se činilo da je dezinfekcija dovoljna, ali u samo 24 sata, došlo je do otkazivanja svih događaja s većim brojim sudionika. Danas bi skup na kojem sudjeluje više od 150 ljudi iz 20-ak zemalja ljudi bio nemoguć.</p> <p><strong>Kongresna sezona</strong></p> <p>Bila je to kongresna burza na kojoj su domaći hotelijeri dogovarali konkretne poslove za ovu i iduću godinu. Najave za ovu kongresnu sezonu bile su odlične, no virus je sve stavio u pat-poziciju. Predstavnici najuspješnijih domaćih hotelskih poduzeća predstavljali su prednosti hrvatskih turističkih kapaciteta za neka bolja vremena, a sljedećih mjeseci mnogi su se pribojavali.</p> <p>U bilo kakve ozbiljne procjene nitko se ne želi upuštati. Ovo su dani kada se informacije mijenjaju iz sata u sat. Početkom tjedna nastradala je najprije industrija zabave: otkazani su koncerti i festivali, sportska natjecanja, kulturne manifestacije.</p> <blockquote><p>“Kao i svako poslovanje, znači gubitak, nama i organizatorima, a uložili smo u marketing, produkciju, bit će štete. Ali, nisu ljudi nervozni, žao im je, ali ne padaju na glavu”, kaže direktor Arene Zagreb <strong>Sretan Šarić.</strong></p></blockquote> <p>Zagrebačka Arena je u hladnom pogonu, a svi angažirani na događajima koja su su do daljnjega na ledu – od konobara do cateringa, od produkcije do prijevoza, električara osjetit će ovaj zastoj u svojoj lisnici.</p> <p>Prije nekoliko dana razgovorali smo u jednom zagrebačkom salonu o poslovanju u doba koronavirusa. Vlasnik se tada malo pribojavao.</p> <blockquote><p>“Imate tu odgovornost, 10 plaća je na mojim leđima pa se bojim, ali opet ne želim paničariti”, rekao nam je vlasnik frizerskog salona <strong>Ivan Franić</strong>.</p></blockquote> <p>Samo prije 4 dana situacija je bila drukčija. 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